Is there a majority?
To pass the Council, a law needs the support of at least 55% of member states, who together need to represent at least 65% of the EU population.
If only the countries marked above as opposing an article vote against the law, it is passed .
Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Finland and Slovenia voted against the proposal last time – if this opposition stands and Italy joins (which changed its stance under its new government), the proposal would narrowly be rejected , falling just shy of the 65% threshold (see a calculator here). The most influential and least sure vote is Germany’s.
The chart is not encouraging…